As I sit down to analyze Colgate University's football prospects this season, I find myself drawing unexpected parallels from international sports. Just last week, I watched the Philippines national team suffer their second consecutive narrow defeat, falling 1-0 to world No. 9 Iran. That match demonstrated something crucial about competitive sports - sometimes the gap between teams isn't as wide as rankings suggest, and that's exactly the conversation we should be having about Colgate football's chances in the Patriot League this year.
Having followed collegiate football for over fifteen years, I've seen enough surprising seasons to know that preseason predictions often miss the mark. Colgate finished last season with a 5-6 record, which doesn't exactly scream "championship contender" at first glance. But when you dig deeper into their performance metrics, something interesting emerges. Their defense allowed just 21.3 points per game, ranking them 35th nationally in FCS football. That defensive solidity reminds me of what I saw in the Philippines-Iran match - sometimes a team can compete with superior opponents through disciplined defensive organization and strategic patience.
What really excites me about this Colgate team is their returning experience. They're bringing back 16 starters, including 8 on defense. In college football, that kind of continuity can be transformative. I remember watching quarterback Michael Brescia develop last season, and if he can improve his completion percentage from last year's 58.3% to somewhere in the low 60s, this offense could become significantly more dangerous. The running game averaged 4.2 yards per carry last season, which needs improvement, but with most of the offensive line returning, I'm optimistic we'll see better production.
The Patriot League landscape presents both challenges and opportunities. Holy Cross has dominated recently, winning the last four conference titles. But here's what many analysts miss - Colgate lost to Holy Cross by just 7 points in their meeting last November. That narrow margin tells me the gap isn't insurmountable. Fordham returns a potent offense, but their defense surrendered 31.6 points per game last season. Lafayette has consistency issues, and Bucknell is rebuilding. When I look at this landscape, I don't see an unconquerable mountain for Colgate - I see a conference where strategic improvements could yield significant rewards.
Let me be clear about where I stand - I believe Colgate can absolutely compete for the Patriot League title this season, though they might not be the outright favorites. Their path hinges on three critical factors that I've seen determine underdog successes time and again. First, the defense must maintain its elite performance while generating more turnovers - they only managed 12 takeaways last season. Second, the offense needs to improve in the red zone, where they converted just 78% of opportunities into scores last year. Third, they need to win the close games - Colgate went 2-3 in games decided by one score last season. Flip that record, and you're looking at a potential championship team.
The schedule sets up reasonably well, with key conference games spaced appropriately. The non-conference slate includes challenging matchups against FBS opponent Syracuse and Ivy League contender Yale, which should provide valuable early tests. I'm particularly interested in how they handle the October 14th game against Holy Cross - that contest could very well determine the conference champion. If they can split their first two conference games and build momentum, we could be looking at a dramatic November push.
What gives me confidence isn't just the roster or the schedule - it's the program's history. Colgate has won 10 Patriot League titles since the conference began sponsoring football in 1986. The culture of winning exists within that program, even if recent results haven't reflected it. Head coach Stan Dakosty has been building toward this moment, and I sense this could be the season where everything clicks. I've seen it happen before with other programs - sometimes a team finds its identity at just the right moment.
Of course, there are legitimate concerns. The receiving corps needs to develop more consistent playmakers, and the special teams unit must improve after ranking near the bottom of FCS in several categories last season. But these are fixable issues, and I'm hearing positive reports from summer workouts about players stepping up in these areas.
As we approach the season opener, I find myself more optimistic about Colgate's chances than most conventional analysts. They have the defensive foundation, the experienced quarterback, and the schedule alignment to make a serious run. Will they win the title? I'd put their chances at about 35%, which makes them a legitimate contender in my book. The beauty of college football lies in its unpredictability, and Colgate represents exactly the kind of team that could defy expectations. Much like the Philippines team that competed fiercely against a world-class Iranian squad, Colgate doesn't need to be the most talented team on paper to achieve something special this season - they just need to maximize what they have and seize opportunities when they arise.
